Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns
In this study, we propose an implied forward-looking measure for systemic risk that employs the information from put option prices, the Systemic...
Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany
The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank...
Outsized Arbitrage
The paper studies incentives and trading decisions of an arbitrageur who can take concentrated bets in an illiquid market and who cares about interim...
Revenge of the Experts: Will COVID-19 Renew or Diminish Public Trust in Science?
It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise...
Financial Policymaking after Crises: Public vs. Private Interests
What drives actual government policies after financial crises? In this paper, we first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by...
The Spread of COVID-19 in London: Network Effects and Optimal Lockdowns
We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious- Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics...
Exploited by Complexity
Due to their complex features, structured financial products can hurt the average investor. Are certain investors particularly vulnerable? Using...
Resolving the Excessive Trading Puzzle: An Integrated Approach Based on Surveys and Transactions
The literature has provided over a dozen explanations for the widely documented excessive trading puzzle of retail investors trading so much that it...
Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries revisited
This paper surveys the state of the art in research in racetrack and lottery markets. Market efficiency and the pricing of various wagers is studied...
Market Fragmentation and Contagion
We study the transmission of liquidity shocks from one sector of the economy to other sectors in a general equilibrium model with multiple trading...
Who Bears Risk in China’s Non-financial Enterprise Debt?
This paper analyses of how risk is allocated in China’s markets for debt issued by non-financial enterprises. Compared to other major corporate bond...
Reform Chatter and Democracy
We explore the dynamics of media chatter about economic reforms using text analysis from about a billion newspaper articles in 28 languages. We show...
Financial Volatility and Economic Growth, 1870–2016
We investigate the causal impact of financial risk on economic growth, using a panel spanning 150 years and 74 countries. Persistent low risk...
Wisdom of Crowds Detects COVID-19 Severity Ahead of Officially Available Data
During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation...
Higher-Order Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service
We assess the ability of an information aggregation mechanism that operates in the over-the-counter market for financial derivatives to reduce...
Asset Pricing with Index Investing
We theoretically analyze how index investing affects financial markets using a dynamic exchange economy with heterogeneous investors and two Lucas...
