Inferring Mutual Fund Intra-Quarter Trading - An Application to ESG Window Dressing
We develop a novel method to infer intra-quarter trading of individual mutual funds. After a mutual fund executes a trade, its reported portfolio...
Sustainable Investing: Evidence From the Field
We survey 509 equity portfolio managers from both traditional and sustainable funds on whether, why, and how they incorporate firms’ environmental and...
Trading Ahead of Barbarians’ Arrival at the Gate: Insider Trading on Non-Inside Information
Privately informed about firm fundamentals, corporate insiders detect activism-motivated trades better than other traders. This paper solves the model...
Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
We survey a large representative sample of retail investors in China to elicit their memories of stock market investment and return expectations. We...
The Law of Small Numbers in Financial Markets: Theory and Evidence
We build a model of the law of small numbers (LSN)—the incorrect belief that even small samples represent the properties of the underlying population...
The Inference-Forecast Gap in Belief Updating
Evidence from experiments, surveys, and the field has uncovered both underreaction and overreaction to new information. We provide new experimental...
Unintended Consequences of Holding Dollar Assets
We examine a novel mechanism whereby the US dollar’s global dominance can have a large, unexpected impact on foreign Treasury yields in crisis periods...
Scale or Yield? A Present-Value Identity
We propose a loglinear present-value identity in which investment ("scale"), profitability ("yield"), and discount rates determine a firm’s market-to...
Polarized Expectations, Polarized Consumption
This paper argues that political affiliation plays a central role in shaping household expectations and consumption behavior. Using survey and...
Centralized vs Decentralized Markets: The Role of Connectivity
We consider a setting in which privately informed agents are located in a network and trade a risky asset with other agents with whom they are...
The Gender Gap in Household Bargaining Power: A Revealed-Preference Approach
When members of the same household have different risk preferences, whose preference matters more for investment decisions and why? We propose an...
Putting the Price in Asset Pricing
We propose a novel way to estimate a portfolio’s abnormal price, the percentage gap between price and the present value of dividends computed with a...
Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Expectations
We study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two...
An Unconventional FX Tail Risk Story
We examine how the tail risk of currency returns over the past 20 years were impacted by central bank (monetary and liquidity) measures across the...
Market Power and Insurance Coverage
This paper examines how market power affects coverage in a general class of insurance models. We show that market power decreases coverage for...
Reaching for Yield: Evidence from Households
The existing literature has documented “reaching for yield” - the phenomenon of investing more in risky assets when interest rates drop - among...