Discussion Papers

We introduce a measure of a government’s fiscal position that exploits cointegrating relationships among fiscal variables. The measure is a loglinear...

Using granular data covering both regulated (brokerage-financed) and unregulated (shadowfinanced) margin accounts in China, we provide novel evidence...

We propose a novel measure, dubbed “relative basis,” to better capture the commodity convenience yield. Our measure is the difference between the...

We derive option-implied bounds on the probability of a crash in an individual stock, and argue a priori that the lower bound should be close to the...

We propose a novel measure that allows us to study memory associations in financial markets over the course of several decades. Using our measure, we...

UK government bond yields tend to rise in a two-day window before labor market data releases and monetary policy news. This effect, particularly...

We study causal narratives – narratives which describe a (potentially incorrect) causal relationship between variables. In a series of experiments...

This paper studies the general equilibrium implications of arbitrage trades in segmented financial markets. Arbitrageurs choose a category of trades...

We develop a novel method to infer intra-quarter trading of individual mutual funds. After a mutual fund executes a trade, its reported portfolio...

We survey 509 equity portfolio managers from both traditional and sustainable funds on whether, why, and how they incorporate firms’ environmental and...

Privately informed about firm fundamentals, corporate insiders detect activism-motivated trades better than other traders. This paper solves the model...

We survey a large representative sample of retail investors in China to elicit their memories of stock market investment and return expectations. We...

We build a model of the law of small numbers (LSN)—the incorrect belief that even small samples represent the properties of the underlying population...

Evidence from experiments, surveys, and the field has uncovered both underreaction and overreaction to new information. We provide new experimental...

We examine a novel mechanism whereby the US dollar’s global dominance can have a large, unexpected impact on foreign Treasury yields in crisis periods...

We propose a loglinear present-value identity in which investment ("scale"), profitability ("yield"), and discount rates determine a firm’s market-to...