Discussion Papers
An Unconventional FX Tail Risk Story
We examine how the tail risk of currency returns over the past 20 years were impacted by central bank (monetary and liquidity) measures across the...
On the use of artificial intelligence in financial regulations and the impact on financial stability
As the financial authorities increase their use of artificial intelligence (AI), micro regulations, such as consumer protection and routine banking...
Let the Market Speak: Using Interest Rates to Identify the Fed Information Effect
I propose a novel method to identify the exogenous monetary shock from the signaling effect of a Fed announcements in real time. The method relies on...
Low Rates and Bank Loan Supply: Theory and Evidence from Japan
In this paper, we explore the consequences of low nominal interest rates for credit supply, macroeconomic outcomes and policy. Using the protracted...
On the Fragility of DeFi Lending
We develop a dynamic model of DeFi lending that incorporates the following key features: 1) borrowing and lending are decentralized, anonymous...
Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency
This paper shows that, in a world dominated by vehicle currencies, firms engaging in international operations retain currency risk and hedge it real...
Latent Fragility: Conditioning Banks' Joint Probability of Default on the Financial Cycle
We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking...
Green Capital Requirements
We study bank capital requirements as a tool to address climate-related financial risks and evaluate whether a prudential mandate for bank regulators...
Cultural Stereotypes of Multinational Banks
Using hand-collected data spanning more than a decade on European banks’ sovereign debt portfolios, we show that the trust of residents of a bank’s...
Some Evidence of Regulatory Convergence
We find some evidence of regulatory convergence in four distinct areas of business activity over the 2005-2019 period. This convergence is most...
Bankers' Pay and the Evolving Structure of US Banking
We study the evolution of pay in US bank holding companies since 1986 using a structural model of the banking firm. The model incorporates a strong...
Demand–Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads
We develop a model in which long-term swap spreads are determined by end users’ demand for swaps, constrained dealers’ supply of swaps, and the risk...
Speculative and Precautionary Demand for Liquidity in Competitive Banking Markets
We demonstrate that the co-existence of different motives for liquidity preferences profoundly affects the efficiency of financial intermediation...
Using a mean changing stochastic processes exit-entry model for stock market long-short prediction
Stochastic processes is one of the key operations research tools for analysis of complex phenomenon. This paper has a unique application to the study...
The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934
This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US macro economy from 1920 to 1934. We use 2.4 million digitized articles from the Wall St...