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Discussion Papers

Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field

We survey a large representative sample of retail investors in China to elicit their memories of stock market investment and return expectations. We...

July 2024
No 100
Zhengyang Jiang
Hongqi Liu
Cameron Peng
Hongjun Yan

Discussion Papers

The Law of Small Numbers in Financial Markets: Theory and Evidence

We build a model of the law of small numbers (LSN)—the incorrect belief that even small samples represent the properties of the underlying population...

July 2024
No 99
Lawrence J. Jin
Cameron Peng

Discussion Papers

Centralized vs Decentralized Markets: The Role of Connectivity

We consider a setting in which privately informed agents are located in a network and trade a risky asset with other agents with whom they are...

January 2024
No 98
Simone Alfarano
Albert Banal-Estañol
Eva Camacho
Giulia Iori
Burcu Kapar
Rohit Rahi

Discussion Papers

Putting the Price in Asset Pricing

We propose a novel way to estimate a portfolio’s abnormal price, the percentage gap between price and the present value of dividends computed with a...

January 2024
No 97
Thummim Cho
Christopher Polk

Discussion Papers

Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Expectations

We study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two...

December 2023
No 96
Lukas Kremens
Ian Martin
Liliana Varela

Discussion Papers

Reaching for Yield: Evidence from Households

The existing literature has documented “reaching for yield” - the phenomenon of investing more in risky assets when interest rates drop - among...

October 2023
No 101
Francisco Gomes
Cameron Peng
Oksana Smirnova
Ning Zhu

Discussion Papers

On the Fragility of DeFi Lending

We develop a dynamic model of DeFi lending that incorporates the following key features: 1) borrowing and lending are decentralized, anonymous...

August 2023
No 95
Jonathan Chiu
Emre Ozdenoren
Kathy Yuan
Shengxing Zhang

Discussion Papers

Personality Differences and Investment Decision-Making

We survey thousands of affluent American investors to examine the relationship between personalities and investment decisions. The Big Five...

April 2023
No 94
Zhengyang Jiang
Cameron Peng
Hongjun Yan

Discussion Papers

A Preferred-Habitat Model of Term Premia, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy Spillovers

We develop a two-country model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles, and segmentation is partly overcome...

April 2023
No 93
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Walker Ray
Dimitri Vayanos

Discussion Papers

Passive Investing and the Rise of Mega-Firms

We study how passive investing affects asset prices. Flows into passive funds raise disproportionately the stock prices of the economy’s largest firms...

March 2023
No 92
Hao Jiang
Dimitri Vayanos
Lu Zheng

Discussion Papers

Delegated Blocks

Will asset managers with large amounts of capital and high risk-bearing capacity hold large blocks and monitor aggressively? Both block size and...

March 2023
No 91
Amil Dasgupta
Richmond Mathews

Discussion Papers

Green Capital Requirements

We study bank capital requirements as a tool to address financial risks and externalities caused by carbon emissions. Capital regulation can...

March 2023
No 90
Martin Oehmke
Marcus Opp

Discussion Papers

Long-Horizon Investing in a Non-CAPM World

We study dynamic portfolio choice in a calibrated equilibrium model where value and momentum anomalies arise because capital slowly moves from under-...

March 2023
No 89
Christopher Polk
Dimitri Vayanos
Paul Woolley

Discussion Papers

Delegation Chains

We ask why we observe multiple layers of decision-making in fund management with investors, sponsors, fund managers, and consultants, even if...

May 2022
No 88
Amil Dasgupta
Ernst Maug

Discussion Papers

Bond Funds and Credit Risk

We show that supply-side effects arising from the bond holdings of open-end mutual funds affect corporate credit risk. In our model, funds exposed to...

May 2022
No 87
Jaewon Choi
Amil Dasgupta
Ji Yeol Jimmy Oh

Discussion Papers

Dynamic Asset-Backed Security Design

Borrowers obtain liquidity by issuing securities backed by current period payoff and resale price of a long-lived collateral asset. They are privately...

May 2022
No 86
Emre Ozdenoren
Kathy Yuan
Shengxing Zhang

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Putting the Price in Asset Pricing

Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field

High-frequency trading in the stock market and the costs of ...

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