When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?
We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European CDC...
The Effects of Small-Firm Loan Guarantees in the UK: Insights for the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis
Loan guarantees are popular policy responses during the COVID-19 crisis. Despite their prevalence, evidence of their effectiveness is sparse. We...
Future imperfect after coronavirus
The authorities, like most of the rest of us, have been caught short by the sudden advent of the coronavirus pandemic, and are rightly rushing to...
The coronavirus crisis is no 2008
Many comparisons have been made between the coronavirus crisis and the global systemic crisis in 2008. This column argues that seen through the lens...
Artificial intelligence as a central banker
Artificial intelligence, such as the Bank of England Bot, is set to take over an increasing number of central bank functions. This column argues that...
Loan Insurance, Market Liquidity, and Lending Standards
We examine loan insurance when lenders can screen at origination, learn loan quality over time, and can sell loans in secondary markets. Loan...
Turning alphas into betas: Arbitrage and endogenous risk
Journal of Financial Economics, 137(2), 550-570
The Post-communist Transition at 30
In the 30 years since the fall of communism, the countries of the former Soviet bloc and Yugoslavia have undergone tremendous change. Income per...
Information Dispersion Across Employees and Stock Returns
Rank-and-file employees are becoming increasingly critical for many firms, yet we know little about how their employment dynamics matter for stock...
Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models
We propose a novel, and simple, Bayesian estimation and model selection procedure for crosssectional asset pricing. Our approach, that allows for both...
Sell in May and Go Away in the Equity Index Futures Markets, 1993-2019
The period May 1 to the turn of the month of November (-6 trading day of October) has historically produced negligible returns. The rest of the year...
Consumption in Asset Returns
Consumption dynamics are hard to measure accurately in the data, yet they are the crucial ingredient of macro-finance asset pricing models. The...
Banks and government bonds: A love story
European banks have been criticised for holding too much domestic government debt during the recent euro area crisis, intensifying the doom loop...
Exchanges of innovation resources inside venture capital portfolios
Journal of Financial Economics, 135 (1), 144-168
Dollars or Pence? Choosing a framework for US-China trade
Given that China is a strategic and economic rival to the US, the Trump administration’s framework for US-China trade makes far more sense than one...
