FMG

We provide a novel priced Wold representation that, using the pricing restrictions of a large cross-section of asset returns, sharply identifies...

We provide a powerful new predictor of the equity premium: Smoothed past overnight market returns strongly negatively forecast the quarterly close-to...

Financial regulations rely on regulator-controlled models to generate probabilistic forecasts which determine firm constraints. I refer to these...

Factor regressions provide a model-agnostic way to identify what drives Treasury yields, but not which investors respond. We develop an equilibrium...