Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment
The Economic Journal, 131(693), 2763–2796
The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934
This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US macro economy from 1920 to 1934. We use 2.4 million digitized articles from the Wall St...
Stake-holder Firms and the Reform of Local Public Finance in China
Since 1978 China has developed strongly using a particular form of capitalism which has relied upon close relations between private enterprise and the...
Moral hazard, the fear of the markets, and how central banks responded to Covid-19
While the direct economic consequences of Covid-19 have been significant, the impact on the financial markets has been more nuanced. This column uses...
Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?
Journal of Public Economics, Volume 193, 2021,104343.
Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns
In this study, we propose an implied forward-looking measure for systemic risk that employs the information from put option prices, the Systemic...
Vaccine challenges
Last week brought welcome news about the apparent effectiveness of a potential Covid-19 vaccine. While the challenges of manufacturing and...
Financial policymaking after crises: Public versus private interest
Financial crises invariably lead governments to intervene in one way or another, whether to ease the damage to middle-class voters, to respond to the...
Revenge of the Experts: Will COVID-19 Renew or Diminish Public Trust in Science?
It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise...
Domestic Banks As Lightning Rods? Home Bias and Information during the Eurozone Crisis
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 52, 2020,12744.
Financial Policymaking after Crises: Public vs. Private Interests
What drives actual government policies after financial crises? In this paper, we first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by...
The Spread of COVID-19 in London: Network Effects and Optimal Lockdowns
We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious- Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics...
Who Bears Risk in China’s Non-financial Enterprise Debt?
This paper analyses of how risk is allocated in China’s markets for debt issued by non-financial enterprises. Compared to other major corporate bond...
Firms in Financial Distress
We use simple accounting measures to estimate the share of private manufacturing firms in financial distress under a hypothetical scenario of losing...
Firms in Financial Distress
We use simple accounting measures to estimate the share of private manufacturing firms in financial distress under a hypothetical scenario of losing...
The political scar of epidemics
What will be the political legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic? This column uses data from the 2006-2018 Gallup World Polls to show that epidemic exposure...
