Using a mean changing stochastic processes exit-entry model for stock market long-short prediction
Stochastic processes is one of the key operations research tools for analysis of complex phenomenon. This paper has a unique application to the study...
Sustainability in a Risky World
This paper studies the restrictions on consumption, portfolio choice, and social discounting implied by a sustainability constraint, that utility...
Property Rights and Urban Form
How do the different elements in the standard bundle of property rights, including those of possession and transfer, influence the shape of cities...
Factor Demand and Factor Returns
A mutual fund’s demand for a pricing factor, measured by the loading of the fund’s returns on the factor’s returns, is persistent over time. When...
Extrapolative Bubbles and Trading Volume
We propose an extrapolative model of bubbles to explain the sharp rise in prices and volume observed in historical financial bubbles. The model...
The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934
This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US macro economy from 1920 to 1934. We use 2.4 million digitized articles from the Wall St...
Stake-holder Firms and the Reform of Local Public Finance in China
Since 1978 China has developed strongly using a particular form of capitalism which has relied upon close relations between private enterprise and the...
Managerial Response to Shareholder Empowerment: Evidence from Majority- voting Legislation Changes
This paper studies how managers react to shareholder empowerment that makes the votes on shareholder proposals regarding majority-voting director...
The Systemic Governance Influence of Universal Owners: Evidence From an Expectation Document
Universal owners - large institutional investors with highly diversified and long-term portfolios spanning the entire global capital market - have...
Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment
We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending...
Do Gendered Laws Matter?
We use a 50-year panel of gendered laws for 190 countries to examine whether laws and legal change are associated with several measures of women’s...
Tracking Biased Weights: Asset Pricing Implications of Value-Weighted Indexing
We show theoretically and empirically that flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks in the index disproportionately more than the...
Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns
In this study, we propose an implied forward-looking measure for systemic risk that employs the information from put option prices, the Systemic...
Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany
The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank...
Outsized Arbitrage
The paper studies incentives and trading decisions of an arbitrageur who can take concentrated bets in an illiquid market and who cares about interim...
Revenge of the Experts: Will COVID-19 Renew or Diminish Public Trust in Science?
It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise...
