Sentiment and speculation in a market with heterogeneous beliefs
We present a dynamic model featuring risk-averse investors with heterogeneous beliefs. Individual investors have stable beliefs and risk aversion, but...
Reconstructing and Stress Testing Credit Networks
Financial networks are an important source of systemic risk, but often only partial network information is available. In this paper, we use data on...
Reconstructing and Stress Testing Credit Networks
Financial networks are an important source of systemic risk, but often only partial network information is available. In this paper, we use data on...
Financial Transaction Taxes and the Informational Efficiency of Financial Markets: A Structural Estimation
We develop a new methodology to estimate the impact of a financial transaction tax (FTT) on informational efficiency, liquidity and volatility. In our...
Measuring Human Capital
Students around the world are going to school but are not learning – an emerging gap in human capital formation. To understand this gap, we introduce...
Trading and Arbitrage in Cryptocurrency Markets
We study the efficiency, price formation and segmentation of cryptocurrency markets. We document large, recurrent arbitrage opportunities in...
Heterogeneous Global Cycles
Why do countries differ in terms of their exposure to fluctuations in the global supply of credit? We argue that frictions in global intermediation...
Cryptocurrencies: Policy, economics and fairness
Cryptocurrencies promise to replace fiat money with private money whose integrity is underpinned by algorithms, not government guarantees. While the...
Turning Alphas into Betas: Arbitrage and the Cross-section of Risk
What determines the cross-section of betas with respect to a risk factor? The act of arbitrage plays an important role. If the capital of arbitrageurs...
Investor Protection and Asset Prices
Empirical evidence suggests that investor protection has significant effects on ownership concentration and asset prices. We develop a dynamic asset...
Asset Encumbrance, Bank Funding and Fragility
We model asset encumbrance by banks subject to rollover risk and study the consequences for fragility, funding costs, and prudential regulation. A...
Domestic banks as lightning rods? Home bias and information during Eurozone crisis
European banks have been criticized for holding excessive domestic government debt during economic downturns, which may have intensified the diabolic...
A Tale of Two Indexes: Predicting Equity Market Downturns in China
Predicting stock market crashes is a focus of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Several prediction models have been developed, mostly...
Bankruptcy in Groups
We examine bankruptcy within business groups. Groups have incentives to support financially distressed subsidiaries as the bankruptcy of a subsidiary...
Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses
We present a novel approach that incorporates individual entity stress testing and losses from systemic risk effects (SE losses) into macroprudential...
A Comprehensive Multi-Sector Tool for Analysis of Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN)
This paper presents the Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN) tool. SyRIN allows a comprehensive assessment of systemic risk via quantification...