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Single point forecasts for growth, inflation, interest rates, and so on are easy to comprehend and to check against outcomes, and are what otherwise busy politicians want. This column argues that they are not what central banks should provide. Instead, they should present scenarios of what might happen if conditions turn out to be better or worse, with some kind of prediction both for interest rates and inflation in each case. The time to make the change is not now, however, but when the target has been regained on average for a year or two.
