Synthetic Forecasting Method for COVID-19: Applications to UK and Turkey

Publication Date
Systemic Risk Centre Special Papers SP 19
Publication Date
Financial Markets Group Special Papers SP 253
Publication Authors

Synthetic control method (SCM) is generally used for producing counterfactual scenarios in policy evaluations. In the light and urgency of the recent developments regarding the COVID-19 virus and the related human and economic losses, I propose a synthetic forecasting method (SFM) in order to estimate the future path of virus-related outcomes in a country. The method takes advantage of the fact that the virus entered into different countries in slightly different points in time. An application to the cumulative COVID-19-related death toll (as of 13 April 2020) shows that the total numbers may increase by 50% in a week in UK and may double in two weeks in Turkey.