A Tale of Two Indexes: Predicting Equity Market Downturns in China
Predicting stock market crashes is a focus of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Several prediction models have been developed, mostly...
Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises
The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 31, Issue 7, Pages 2774–2805.
Cryptocurrencies are lousy investments
Are cryptocurrencies the future of money, Ponzi schemes, speculators’ dreams, or just a prosperity gospel? While there is money to be made in the...
Cryptocurrencies
Are cryptocurrencies the future of money, Ponzi schemes, speculators dream, freedom or just a cult?
Information Acquisition, Price Informativeness and Welfare
We consider the market for a risky asset with heterogeneous valuations. Private information that agents have about their own valuation is reflected in...
Bank Resolution and the Structure of Global Banks
We study the resolution of global banks by national regulators. Single-point-of-entry (SPOE) resolution, where loss-absorbing capital is shared across...
Financial Markets where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices
We present a model of a financial market where some traders are “cursed” when investing in a risky asset, failing to fully appreciate what prices...
Trading and Information Diffusion in Over-the-Counter Markets
We propose a model of trade in over-the-counter (OTC) markets in which each dealer with private information can engage in bilateral transactions with...
Superstar Firms and College Major Choice
We study the relation between the presence of superstar firms and college students’ major choice. Occurrences of superstar performers in an industry...
Low risk as a predictor of financial crises
Reliable indicators of future financial crises are important for policymakers and practitioners. While most indicators consider an observation of high...
Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises
We study the effects of stock market volatility on risk-taking and financial crises by constructing a cross-country database spanning up to 211 years...
Cryptocurrencies don't make sense
Cryptocurrencies are supposedly a new and superior form of money and investments – the way of the future. The author of this column, however, does not...
Why investors should be weaned off tight tracking to market indices
Exploitative momentum investing would shrivel in the absence of benchmarkers.
The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates
We present a new, theoretically motivated, forecasting variable for exchange rates that is based on the prices of quanto index contracts, and show via...
