Christopher Polk

The equity premium has conventionally been defined as the return on stocks minus the return on bills. We decompose this conventional definition into...

We introduce discounted alpha - a novel framework for equity valuation. By correcting market prices rather than discounting long-horizon cash flows...

We provide a powerful new predictor of the equity premium: Smoothed past overnight market returns strongly negatively forecast the quarterly close-to...

We propose a loglinear present-value identity in which investment ("scale"), profitability ("yield"), and discount rates determine a firm’s market-to...

We propose a novel way to estimate a portfolio’s abnormal price, the percentage gap between price and the present value of dividends computed with a...

Management Science, 70 (8), 5367-5385