Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment
We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending...
As COVID rages, bankruptcy cases fall
Bankruptcies have fallen sharply in OECD economies because of the array of COVID-related support available to businesses, as well as imposed moratoria...
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Performance-Induced CEO Turnover
The Review of Financial Studies, 34 (2), 569-617
Moral hazard, the fear of the markets, and how central banks responded to Covid-19
While the direct economic consequences of Covid-19 have been significant, the impact on the financial markets has been more nuanced. This column uses...
Do Gendered Laws Matter?
We use a 50-year panel of gendered laws for 190 countries to examine whether laws and legal change are associated with several measures of women’s...
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Identifying and boosting “Gazelles”: Evidence from business accelerators
Journal of Financial Economics, 139 (1), 260-287
Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?
Journal of Public Economics, Volume 193, 2021,104343.
Tracking Biased Weights: Asset Pricing Implications of Value-Weighted Indexing
We show theoretically and empirically that flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks in the index disproportionately more than the...
Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns
In this study, we propose an implied forward-looking measure for systemic risk that employs the information from put option prices, the Systemic...
Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany
The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank...
Outsized Arbitrage
The paper studies incentives and trading decisions of an arbitrageur who can take concentrated bets in an illiquid market and who cares about interim...
Vaccine challenges
Last week brought welcome news about the apparent effectiveness of a potential Covid-19 vaccine. While the challenges of manufacturing and...