Publications

I test the predictions of human memory models in a high-stakes trading environment. Using alphabetical rankings of stocks from portfolio statements, I...

We analyze 18 quadrillion models for the joint pricing of corporate bond and stock returns. Strikingly, we find that equity and nontradable factors...

We introduce a measure of a government’s fiscal position that exploits cointegrating relationships among fiscal variables. The measure is a loglinear...

Using granular data covering both regulated (brokerage-financed) and unregulated (shadowfinanced) margin accounts in China, we provide novel evidence...

We propose a novel measure, dubbed “relative basis,” to better capture the commodity convenience yield. Our measure is the difference between the...

We derive option-implied bounds on the probability of a crash in an individual stock, and argue a priori that the lower bound should be close to the...

Management Science, 0(0)

We propose a novel measure that allows us to study memory associations in financial markets over the course of several decades. Using our measure, we...

UK government bond yields tend to rise in a two-day window before labor market data releases and monetary policy news. This effect, particularly...

We study causal narratives – narratives which describe a (potentially incorrect) causal relationship between variables. In a series of experiments...

This paper studies the general equilibrium implications of arbitrage trades in segmented financial markets. Arbitrageurs choose a category of trades...