Influential research by members of the Financial Markets Group has been published in some of the most recognised international journals in the field.
Click to see a collection of notable FMG working papers which have been published in American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, and Review of Financial Studies.
How long can firms survive in the Covid-19 crisis?
Median survival time ranges from 8 to 19 weeks across 12 countries. Worryingly, this is not correlated with firm size, age or productivity, which...
It’s time for a recovery plan
With businesses fast running out of cash, governments need to roll out a loan program that builds on the recently-created job retention scheme, write...
Synthetic Forecasting Method for COVID-19: Applications to UK and Turkey
Synthetic control method (SCM) is generally used for producing counterfactual scenarios in policy evaluations. In the light and urgency of the recent...
How to restart the economy after Covid-19
Governments can do two things to keep businesses afloat: temporarily suspend bankruptcy procedures, and design a post-crisis restart process, write...
When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?
We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European CDC...
The Effects of Small-Firm Loan Guarantees in the UK: Insights for the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis
Loan guarantees are popular policy responses during the COVID-19 crisis. Despite their prevalence, evidence of their effectiveness is sparse. We...
Future imperfect after coronavirus
The authorities, like most of the rest of us, have been caught short by the sudden advent of the coronavirus pandemic, and are rightly rushing to...
Loan Insurance, Market Liquidity, and Lending Standards
We examine loan insurance when lenders can screen at origination, learn loan quality over time, and can sell loans in secondary markets. Loan...
Turning alphas into betas: Arbitrage and endogenous risk
Journal of Financial Economics, 137(2), 550-570
The Post-communist Transition at 30
In the 30 years since the fall of communism, the countries of the former Soviet bloc and Yugoslavia have undergone tremendous change. Income per...
Information Dispersion Across Employees and Stock Returns
Rank-and-file employees are becoming increasingly critical for many firms, yet we know little about how their employment dynamics matter for stock...
Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models
We propose a novel, and simple, Bayesian estimation and model selection procedure for crosssectional asset pricing. Our approach, that allows for both...
Sell in May and Go Away in the Equity Index Futures Markets, 1993-2019
The period May 1 to the turn of the month of November (-6 trading day of October) has historically produced negligible returns. The rest of the year...
Consumption in Asset Returns
Consumption dynamics are hard to measure accurately in the data, yet they are the crucial ingredient of macro-finance asset pricing models. The...
