Publications

We provide a powerful new predictor of the equity premium: Smoothed past overnight market returns strongly negatively forecast the quarterly close-to...

Financial regulations rely on regulator-controlled models to generate probabilistic forecasts which determine firm constraints. I refer to these...

Factor regressions provide a model-agnostic way to identify what drives Treasury yields, but not which investors respond. We develop an equilibrium...

We analyze how the use of artificial intelligence affects the monitoring and advisory relationship between CEOs and corporate boards. AI can serve as...

We construct a firm-specific profit uncertainty index and profit shocks for Swedish firms and their employees (1997-2017) using shrinkage methods on...

The canonical view of bankruptcy law is that it solves a market failure by imposing a collective choice process that supplants the market. We propose...

Many economic questions require estimating the price effect of demand shifts (multipliers) in the bond market. Corporate bonds have salient...

Can financial intermediaries help solve the externalities of the real-economy, even when all investors are purely return-driven? This paper develops a...

We study empirically and theoretically the effects of international financial flows on resource allocation. Using the universe of firms in Hungary, we...

Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) manage counterparty risk by requiring clearing members to post margins. This paper explores the role of margins...

What determines whether and how regulations are reformed? We use a newly constructed data set of 3,590 successful and failed regulatory reforms in 189...

No jurisdiction can ignore stablecoins. They can be banned outright only in the most effectively authoritarian countries, or accommodated and even...